Sacking your manager is statistically pointless , so clubs should stop their macho behaviour
On average, Premier League sackings make no difference at all to a team’s performance, as a study of Premier League sackings from 2000-2015 found.
Comparing underperforming teams who sacked their managers after a terrible run to those clubs who kept their managers after the same dire form, the group of Dutch academics showed that results improve, and by the same amount, regardless of whether or not the manager is sacked. Studies of other leagues have shown the same.
Clubs generally respond from the same reflex.
If the results fall short of expectations, the manager will be fired. Despite the fact that the facts show that in 90% of the cases it makes no sense to fire a manager, clubs continue to respond in an identical manner.
There are several reasons for this.
The external pressure from media, sponsors and fans is perceived as too great. “Something has to be done. And it’s hard to fire 11 players” .
So firing a coach is the most obvious and simple measure a club can take.
Explanations for the disappointing results are constantly being sought and this is fully projected on the manager. It is the easy way out. But not the best way to get back on track.
Disappointing results always have multiple causes.
Unrealistic expectations, poor player recruitment, lack of club vision, lack of a clear strategy. However simply bad luck can also be a cause for disappointing results. An inexperienced manager who still makes beginners mistakes.
Leaders should focus much more on the overall impression of a club. A holistic approach will lead to sustainable results.
Self-reflection is the key to improving results. And that is precisely what it lacks chronically within football clubs. ‘Pointing the finger” is common within the culture of football. And to break through that destructive culture, it is time to let go of the macho culture.
If there is no expertise within the club to initiate this process, outside help must be sought.
If you think you should fire the manager, do it for the right reasons.